Kilauea pauses as USGS forecasts episode 56

Kilauea, one of the most active volcanoes on the planet, has returned to a pause. Episode 55 of lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu crater began at 3:19 a.m. local time on Saturday 17 October and stopped at 9:03 a.m., after about 5.7 hours. It is the 55th episode since the current eruption began on 23 December 2024. The question now is when the next one will arrive.

What happened

Episode 55 was short but intense. According to the daily update from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the north-vent fountain reached about 220 metres (720 feet) and the eruptive plume rose to about 7,500 metres (25,000 feet) above sea level. Tephra fall was mostly confined to the closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, south-west of the vents.

The south and west vents did not fountain, although they produced overflows before the episode. All activity and lava flows stayed within Halemaʻumaʻu crater. The alert level moved from WATCH and aviation colour orange during the eruption to ADVISORY and yellow afterwards.

The pause does not mean calm. The observatory recorded eight earthquakes in the summit area in the 24 hours before the 20 October update. Ground tilt, which had fallen 21 microradians during the episode, had recovered 8.6 microradians since the fountains ended. Episode 55 followed 39 days of intermittent overflows, a record run of precursory activity, and the emplacement of a shallow dike beneath Kaluapele. The USGS says the onset departed from the pattern and adds uncertainty to the forecast.

The map: one volcano among 86

The map brings together 86 volcanoes with Holocene or historical eruptions in 41 countries, based on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP). Kilauea appears as a point in Hawaiʻi, at 19.421 north and 155.287 west, with an elevation of 1,247 metres, a shield volcano and its last eruption recorded in 2026. It is one of two Hawaiian volcanoes on the map, alongside Mauna Loa (4,169 m, 2022).

The distribution provides context. Chile, Italy and Japan each appear with five volcanoes; Alaska, Iceland, Kamchatka, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea with four. The map shows a clear concentration along the Pacific Ring of Fire, although it also includes the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and Africa. Kilauea is no exception: it is one of many systems that scientists monitor.

The map does not explain the pause or anticipate episode 56. It only places the crater and reminds us that volcanism is global. The link to the news is context, not cause.

How to read the map

Each point is a volcano. Clicking opens a card with the country, elevation, type and year of the last recorded eruption. The legend has a single category, «Active volcano (86)»: it shows presence, not intensity.

«Active» means the volcano has erupted during the Holocene or in historical times, not that it is erupting now. The map includes Vesuvius (1944), Mount Fuji (1707) and Eyjafjallajökull (2010). It is a geological timescale, not a real-time status report. Elevation is summit height, not the height of an eruptive column.

Zoom out and the flat map becomes a 3D globe; the 2D/3D button returns you to the flat view. The data are from 2026 and come from the GVP. The cards do not include alert levels, hazard maps, lava paths or air quality.

What the map does not say

The map does not measure risk. It does not show which populations live near each volcano, which infrastructure is exposed or what evacuation capacity exists. Nor does it show frequency, duration or gas emissions. A point is not an alert.

For Kilauea, the map is right to record the 2026 eruption, but it does not distinguish between an active phase and a pause. It does not show that recent activity has stayed within a closed crater or that the alert level is «advisory». That information sits in the USGS updates.

The episode 56 forecast is a preliminary window, between 27 October and 6 November. The USGS warns that uncertainty is greater because episode 55 departed from the pattern. It is not a fixed date.

What comes next

The USGS expects episode 56 between 27 October and 6 November if behaviour returns to previous patterns. The alert level remains at ADVISORY and the aviation colour code at yellow. The observatory continues to monitor with seismometers, tiltmeters, cameras and gas measurements.

Hazards do not disappear during the pause: gas can still irritate downwind, tephra can be remobilised and the crater rim is unstable. That perimeter has been closed to the public since late 2007. Visitors and residents should check USGS and park updates before approaching.