OECD countries are 4% off their 2030 climate path

The annual Climate Action Monitor 2026, published on Thursday 5 November, measures the gap between the policies countries are actually pursuing and the ones they say they will pursue. The OECD brings together 38 member countries and 13 partners, and its diagnosis arrives four days before COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye, with implementation as the watchword.

What has happened

The club of member countries is not on the path it has signed up to either. OECD members should go from 12.8 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases in 2024 to 10.2 gigatonnes in 2030 under their Paris Agreement pledges. With current policies, the organisation estimates they will remain 4% above the required trajectory. The gap is wider among the 13 partner economies analysed, at 10%; that group generated 23.1 gigatonnes, with China and India the main contributors.

The global picture is getting worse. Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions reached about 51 gigatonnes in 2024, up 1% on 2023 and 7% on 2015. OECD countries peaked in 2007 and have cut emissions by 11% since 2015; partner countries have increased theirs by 12%, driven by industrial growth and energy demand. “Because of this dynamic, global emissions continue to rise despite the prolonged reduction in several countries,” the report says, as cited by EFE.

The diagnosis goes beyond emissions. The adoption of climate policies has grown by 31% since 2015 and accumulated mitigation effort by 66%, but in 2025 that effort increased by only 1%. The report also measures the cost of inaction: days with above-average temperatures were 126% more frequent in 2021-2025 than in 1981-2010; average annual losses from natural disasters rose from $101.2bn in 1994-1998 to $249.1bn in 2021-2025, an increase of 146%; and heatwaves caused about 336,500 deaths between 2000 and 2026, roughly 20% of those attributed to disasters.

In Spain, the number of days above 35°C has tripled in some areas and tropical nights have more than doubled. Soil moisture on cultivable land is below the historical average and the country is among the most exposed to wildfire risk in Europe: about 140,000 hectares burned between 13 and 28 July 2026, according to EFE.

The map: a snapshot of who emits

The map colours 205 countries by their total fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024, the Global Carbon Project series published by Our World in Data. The legend is in millions of tonnes per year and runs from light to dark. Hovering or tapping reveals the absolute figure and the global share in each popup.

China leads with 12,289 million tonnes, or 31.84% of the global share. The United States, an OECD member, accounts for 4,904 million tonnes (12.71%); India for 3,193 million (8.27%); and Russia for 1,781 million (4.61%). Among European economies, Germany records 572 million tonnes (1.48%), Türkiye 513 million (1.33%) and Spain 220 million (0.57%). China alone accounts for almost a third of fossil CO₂; Asia is home to the world's largest emitter and the third-largest, India.

The map does not measure the same thing as the report. The Climate Action Monitor works with greenhouse gases in CO₂ equivalent — the 51 gigatonnes also include methane, nitrous oxide and other gases — whereas the map covers fossil CO₂ only. Nor does it measure the trajectory to 2030 or adjust for population or historical emissions: it is a snapshot of who emits and how much, not of who is on track. It helps to contextualise concentration, but does not on its own explain how responsibility should be shared.

The distinction matters when reading the 4% gap. The OECD has been cutting emissions since 2007, but its rate of reduction is not enough to reach 2030. Its members still carry considerable weight — the United States accounts for 12.71% of fossil CO₂, more than Germany, Türkiye and Spain combined — even though absolute growth is driven mainly by emerging economies.

What comes next

COP31 runs in Antalya from 9 to 20 November. It will be the first climate summit with two presidencies, Türkiye and Australia, and it arrives with a sober message: move from pledges to delivery. The Turkish presidency has proposed an electrification goal — “35 by 35” — to raise electricity from just over 20% of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035. The OECD attends as a strategic partner and runs a virtual pavilion with around 20 sessions.

The report will be one of the pieces of evidence cited in Antalya: even economies with the greatest administrative capacity and the most climate policies in place are not on track for their own targets. The question is not whether there is a new announcement, but whether countries submit more ambitious plans, how they are financed and whether effort recovers the pace lost in 2025.

The map sets out the starting point. It does not say which country will meet its targets, but it shows where the emissions that need to fall are concentrated. The transition will be decided country by country, and the 2024 snapshot is the baseline against which progress will be measured.