Jet fuel is starting to leave empty seats on Spanish flights

The winter season began on Sunday 25 October and airlines operating in Spain have scheduled 145.6 million seats until 27 March 2027. That is 5.5% more than last winter, according to the Spanish Airline Association (ALA), which represents 85% of Spanish air traffic. The figure is a record, but it comes with a warning: jet fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty could force schedule cuts.

What happened

The summer season, from April to September, produced an uncomfortable signal for the first time. There were 1.35 million commercial flights, 4.7% more than the previous summer, but passenger numbers grew more slowly: 4.4%, to around 192 million. It is the first time that flight supply has outpaced demand. "Load factors are beginning to suffer from the impact of jet fuel prices," said ALA president Javier Gándara at the winter forecast presentation.

ALA attributes much of the adjustment to fuel. Jet fuel has come close to $1,600 a tonne in recent months, more than double its level before the war with Iran began, and accounts for around 30% of airline costs. Carriers operating in Spain have hedged between 60% and 80% of their consumption for this winter at prices close to pre-conflict levels; the rest is exposed to the market.

Winter capacity is growing unevenly. Madrid-Barajas adds 37.35 million seats, up 9.7%, driven by Wizz Air's new base in November. Barcelona-El Prat stays at 26.3 million (+1.9%). The Canary Islands reach 29.72 million (+0.1%), the Balearic Islands 10.37 million (+4.4%) and Andalusia 17.39 million (+5.6%). So far this year, the Spanish airport system has handled 257 million passengers up to September, 4.1% more, and ALA expects a new annual record.

The pressure is not limited to winter. For summer 2027, fuel hedging cover falls to between 40% and 50% of consumption. "It is the most uncertain summer since Covid," Gándara warned. The association does not rule out airlines adjusting routes or cutting frequencies if jet fuel stays high, and notes that part of the extra cost may end up in ticket prices.

The map: two Spanish airports in the top 30

The map brings together the 50 busiest airports in the world in 2025, based on the Airports Council International (ACI World) ranking. Each point is an airport and its size grows with annual traffic. Madrid-Barajas ranks 18th, with 68.1 million passengers. Barcelona-El Prat is 26th, with 57.5 million. They are the only two Spanish airports on the list.

The global scale helps to put the system now facing higher fuel costs into perspective. Atlanta leads the ranking with 106.3 million passengers, followed by Dubai (95.2 million) and Tokyo-Haneda (91.7 million). London-Heathrow is seventh, with 84.5 million. Madrid and Barcelona are not competing for first place, but they are part of the top division of global aviation, and that volume is what is exposed to a sustained rise in jet fuel.

The map does not measure the war or the oil price. What it adds is the context of scale: the two main Spanish hubs handle tens of millions of passengers a year, and any capacity adjustment affects tourism, connectivity and airport employment. It does not on its own explain ticket prices or flight occupancy.

What comes next

The winter season runs until 27 March 2027. ALA warns that the capacity figures are forecasts closed on 15 October and that some airlines have already announced cuts for the low season. The outlook depends on whether jet fuel stays near $1,600 a tonne and on whether demand holds up without a sharp fare adjustment.

On the regulatory side, the association wants the review of the EU emissions trading directive to raise from 110 million to 500 million the additional allowances earmarked for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which cost three to eight times more than conventional jet fuel. It also calls for incentives to produce and use SAF. These are medium-term measures; this winter will be decided sooner by fuel prices and airline schedules.